Existing law, the California Emergency Services Act, establishes, within the office of the Governor, the Office of Emergency Services, under the Director of Emergency Services for the purpose of mitigating the effects of natural, human-made, or war-caused emergencies.

Existing law establishes the Department of Water Resources within the Natural Resources Agency and sets forth its powers and duties relating to water resources. Existing law establishes the Atmospheric Rivers: Research, Mitigation, and Climate Forecasting Program within the department to, upon appropriation of special fund moneys, research climate forecasting and the causes and impacts that climate change has on atmospheric rivers, to operate reservoirs in a manner that improves flood protection in the state, and to reoperate flood control and water storage facilities to capture water generated by atmospheric rivers.

This bill would establish the State-Federal Flood Operations Center within the Department of Water Resources and would authorize the department to administer the center in the departments divisions, offices, or programs. The bill would provide that the purpose of the center is to function as the focal point for gathering, analyzing, and disseminating flood and water-related information to stakeholders and would authorize the center to take specified actions for that purpose, including to function during emergency situations to enable the department to centrally coordinate statewide emergency responses.

This bill would require the center department and the Office of Emergency Services, in consultation with cooperating agencies, as defined, to develop and submit a report to the Legislature, as specified, on or before June October 1, 2025, that outlines necessary technological advancements for agile forecasting and identifies regions that are and were underserved, gaps in data that would improve flood response, and strategies for improving communication and emergency response to identified regions. response.

Existing law, the California Emergency Services Act, establishes, within the office of the Governor, the Office of Emergency Services, under the Director of Emergency Services for the purpose of mitigating the effects of natural, human-made, or war-caused emergencies.

Existing law establishes the Department of Water Resources within the Natural Resources Agency and sets forth its powers and duties relating to water resources. Existing law establishes the Atmospheric Rivers: Research, Mitigation, and Climate Forecasting Program within the department to, upon appropriation of special fund moneys, research climate forecasting and the causes and impacts that climate change has on atmospheric rivers, to operate reservoirs in a manner that improves flood protection in the state, and to reoperate flood control and water storage facilities to capture water generated by atmospheric rivers.

This bill would establish the State-Federal Flood Operations Center within the Department of Water Resources and would authorize the department to administer the center in the departments divisions, offices, or programs. The bill would provide that the purpose of the center is to function as the focal point for gathering, analyzing, and disseminating flood and water-related information to stakeholders and would authorize the center to take specified actions for that purpose, including to function during emergency situations to enable the department to centrally coordinate statewide emergency responses.

This bill would require the center and the Office of Emergency Services, in consultation with cooperating agencies, to develop and submit a report to the Legislature, as specified, on or before June 1, 2025, that outlines necessary technological advancements for agile forecasting and identifies regions that are and were underserved, gaps in data that would improve flood response, and strategies for improving communication and emergency response to identified regions.

Existing law, the California Emergency Services Act, establishes, within the office of the Governor, the Office of Emergency Services, under the Director of Emergency Services for the purpose of mitigating the effects of natural, human-made, or war-caused emergencies.

Existing law establishes the Department of Water Resources within the Natural Resources Agency and sets forth its powers and duties relating to water resources. Existing law establishes the Atmospheric Rivers: Research, Mitigation, and Climate Forecasting Program within the department to, upon appropriation of special fund moneys, research climate forecasting and the causes and impacts that climate change has on atmospheric rivers, to operate reservoirs in a manner that improves flood protection in the state, and to reoperate flood control and water storage facilities to capture water generated by atmospheric rivers.

This bill would establish the State-Federal Flood Operations Center within the Department of Water Resources and would authorize the department to administer the center in the departments divisions, offices, or programs. The bill would provide that the purpose of the center is to function as the focal point for gathering, analyzing, and disseminating flood and water-related information to stakeholders and would authorize the center to take specified actions for that purpose, including to function during emergency situations to enable the department to centrally coordinate statewide emergency responses.

This bill would require the center and the Office of Emergency Services, in consultation with cooperating agencies, to develop and submit a report to the Legislature, as specified, on or before June 1, 2025, that outlines necessary technological advancements for agile forecasting and identifies regions that are and were underserved, gaps in data that would improve flood response, and strategies for improving communication and emergency response to identified regions.

Existing law, the California Emergency Services Act, creates, within the office of the Governor, the Office of Emergency Services, which is responsible for addressing natural, technological, or human-caused disasters and emergencies, including responsibility for activities necessary to prevent, respond to, recover from, and mitigate the effects of emergencies and disasters to people and property. Existing law establishes the Department of Water Resources within the Natural Resources Agency and sets forth its powers and duties relating to water resources.

This bill would require the office and the department to jointly establish and lead the Extreme Weather Forecast and Threat Intelligence Integration Center for the purpose of collecting, assessing, and analyzing extreme weather data and atmospheric conditions, as specified. The bill would require that the center be composed of representatives from specified organizations and would authorize the office and the department to invite other organizations to designate additional representatives, as specified.

This bill would require the center to share intelligence and data relevant to weather threat, forecasting, detection, and prevention activities received from utility weather and emergency operations centers, partner academic institutions, private companies, and other sources in coordination with certain organizations, as specified. The bill would require the center to develop and disseminate timely and actionable intelligence products and would permit use of those products by emergency managers, public safety officials, and local public and private sector entities engaged in emergency preparedness efforts.

This bill would require the center to develop a statewide extreme weather forecast and threat intelligence strategy and would authorize use of that strategy by agencies to improve how extreme weather threats are identified, understood, and shared for the purpose of reducing threats to California government, businesses, and consumers. The bill would prescribe the manner in which the center would conduct information sharing, including the protection and safeguarding of sensitive information. The bill would make various findings and declarations in this regard.

SENATE COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS

Senator Anthony Portantino, Chair

2023 - 2024 Regular Session

AB 277 (Rodriguez) - Extreme Weather Forecast and Threat Intelligence Integration Center

Bill Summary:

This bill would codify the State-Federal Flood Operations Center in the Department of Water Resources (DWR), and would require DWR and the Office of Emergency Services (OES) to report on forecasting and data that would improve flood response.

Fiscal Impact:

• DWR estimates one-time costs of about $100,000 (General Fund) to implement the report.
• Unknown, potentially significant costs (General Fund) for OES to collaborate with DWR on the report, forecasting, and data identification.
• Unknown but likely minor costs (General Fund) for other agencies and departments to consult with DWR and OES.

Background:

California has experienced destructive flood events throughout its history. Before January 2023, the last major and widespread flooding event was 1997 (the New Year’s Day floods, when 120,000 people were evacuated and 23,000 homes and businesses flooded). More recently, more local flood disasters include the Oroville Spillway in 2017 and the Russian River floods in 2019. Even before this year’s floods, every county in California has been declared a federal disaster area at least once for a flooding event over the last 30 years.

Estimates suggest more than 7.3 million people and structures valued at nearly $600 billion statewide are located in areas that have at least a 1-in-500 probability of flooding in any given year. In the Central Valley, 1.3 million people, $17 billion in agricultural economic activity, and $223 billion in homes, businesses, and structures are in flood risk areas. Factoring in future development, climate change, and potential losses to key infrastructure, those figures could climb much higher. Current projections indicate that peak flood flows will increase up to five times by 2072 in the Central Valley compared to past records. Despite their damaging potential, in some cases floods can have positive effects including replenishing groundwater basins, creating habitat for fish and wildlife, and improving water quality by flushing out contaminants.

A future of extreme weather. In 2010, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) led a multidisciplinary team of leading earth scientists, engineers, and social scientists to create the ARkStorm Scenario: a detailed and realistic depiction of how a severe winter storm could affect the state. The ARkStrom Scenario shows that atmospheric rivers represent a nearly existential threat to California’s people, economy, and culture. A new ARkStorm scenario (ARkStorm 2.0) has recently been analyzed to reflect climate change data and advances in modeling to investigate the impact of a 30-day storm in a future climate (2071-2080), called ARkFuture. This new modeling shows that climate change will increase the severity of storms.

Current DWR extreme weather and flooding programs and services. Year-round, the FOC is responsible for coordinating local, state, and federal flood operations. The FOC is housed within the DWR’s Division of Flood Management and is the facility from which DWR centrally coordinates emergency response state-wide. The FOC, when activated during a major weather event, operates 24 hours a day to monitor changing conditions, coordinate flood response efforts with local and federal partners, and inform the public.

The FOC coordinates with the NWS, among other organizations, to forecast the location, quantity, and timing of expected precipitation and issue river forecasts, high water notifications, flood alerts, and support flood mobilization as appropriate. Responses to this work may include changes in reservoir operations, additional interagency communication, levee patrol, and emergency support. DWR coordinates closely with OES when emergency operation centers are activated during a flood or other emergency follow the Standardized Emergency Management System protocol.

The California AR Program was created by California Senate Bill SB 758 (Block, Chapter 682, Statutes of 2015). The AR Program is housed in DWR in coordination with the Center for Western Weather Extremes (see below) and aims to develop the science of atmospheric rivers to support planning, forecasts and warning elements of flood management and water management in California.

The Flood Emergency Response Information Exchange provides participating agencies an online system to access and exchange current flood information in real-time through Web GIS interface. It integrates geo-referenced databases, a real-time data collection and exchange system, and a decision support system supporting other DWR programs, various hydrologic and hydraulic computer models and tools, and applicable flood-related documents.

The California Data Exchange Center installs, maintains, and operates an extensive hydrologic data collection network including automatic snow reporting gages for the Cooperative Snow Surveys Program and precipitation and river stage sensors for flood forecasting.

Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography. Among other initiatives, the Center for Western Weather Extremes coordinates an Atmospheric River Reconnaissance program with U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, DWR, U.S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The goal of this program is to support water management decisions and flood forecasting by developing and testing the potential of targeted airborne and buoy observations over the Northeast Pacific to improve forecasts of the landfall and impacts of atmospheric rivers on the U.S. West Coast at lead times of one to five days. Innovations in targeting methods, data assimilation, and regional forecast skill requirements are pursued through collaborative, cross-disciplinary, science-based strategies.

Challenge and impact of forecasting extreme weather. Although western U.S. forecasting of floods and the precipitation that causes them has improved over time, major gaps remain. The current science of weather forecasts can generally only support a zero to four-day lead time for decisions that would support water management and hazard mitigation. Many of these challenges result from errors in the prediction of atmospheric river landfall position, intensity, orientation, duration, and temperature.

Flooding disasters caused by extreme storms disproportionally impact vulnerable communities. According to a report by the Legislative Analyst’s Office, “much of the new housing construction in the state has occurred in areas that are at significant risk of the effects of climate change…[which means] in many cases, impacts will be felt most acutely by low income households who disproportionately live in areas of the state that will be exposed to higher risks and [live in the] types of housing that are typically less resilient.” Sufficient disaster preparedness may be too costly for people of low socioeconomic status, and there are barriers for vulnerable communities to have agile communication with government agencies.

2022-2023 winter storm disasters in California. California began 2023 with as many as nine major storm events in around three weeks. These storms brought eight–⁠15 inches of rain in the valleys, 20–⁠30 inches of rain in the foothills, and 10–⁠15 feet of snow in the Sierra. While this precipitation did provide much-needed drought relief, it was accompanied by intense floods and winds reaching up to 90 mph that caused over $1 billion in damage and the tragic loss of at least 22 lives.

The phenomenon responsible for exacerbating the impact of these storms was a series of ARs, which are long corridors that transport concentrated water vapor through the air from the tropics to California. These events can be either hazardous or beneficial depending on their intensity. When atmospheric river-fed storms approach land and encounter high elevation mountain ranges, such as the Sierra Nevada, moist air rises and cools producing copious amounts of precipitation. Some of these atmospheric rivers can carry 7.5–⁠15 times the average flow out of the Mississippi River.

Based on forecasts of the high winds, excessive rainfall, and the potential for flooding, local operational areas (counties) began proclaiming local emergencies prior to the damaging New Year’s Eve storm. On January 4, 2023 the Governor requested and secured an Emergency Declaration for direct Federal Assistance from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). As the series of atmospheric rivers continued to cause floods, extended power outages, and displace thousands of residents, a majority of California’s counties proclaimed local emergencies and ultimately the Governor requested an Expedited Major Disaster Declaration on January 12, 2023. President Biden approved the Major Disaster Declaration on January 14, 2023.

Proposed Law:

This bill would codify the State-Federal Flood Operations Center in the DWR, and would require DWR and OES to report on forecasting and data that would improve flood response. Specifically, this bill would:

1. Establish the State-Federal Flood Operations Center within DWR.
2. Authorize DWR to administer the center in the department’s divisions, offices, or programs.
3. Provide that the purpose of the center is to function as the focal point for gathering, analyzing, and disseminating flood and water-related information to stakeholders and would authorize the center to take specified actions for that purpose, including to function during emergency situations to enable the department to centrally coordinate statewide emergency responses.
4. Require the department and OES, in consultation with cooperating agencies, as defined, to develop and submit a report to the Legislature, as specified, on or before October 1, 2025, that outlines necessary technological advancements for agile forecasting and gaps in data that would improve response.

Related Legislation:

SB 366 (Caballero, 2023) would revise and recast the California Water Plan and require the Water Plan, commencing with the 2028 update, to be a comprehensive plan for addressing the state’s water needs and meeting water specified long-term supply targets.

SB 638 (Eggman, 2023) the Climate Resiliency and Flood Protection Bond Act of 2024, would, if approved by voters, authorize $6 billion in general obligation bonds for flood protection and climate resiliency projects, as provided.

SB 659 (Ashby, 2023) would establish the California Water Supply Solutions Act of 2023 to, among other things, require the DWR to develop a groundwater recharge action plan by January 1, 2026, that provides actionable recommendations that result in the ability to create additional groundwater recharge capacity.

AB 30 (Ward, 2023) would rename and reconfigure the existing AR Program as the “Atmospheric River Research and Forecast Improvement Program: Enabling Climate Adaptation Through Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations and Hazard Resiliency Program (AR/FIRO Program), as specified.

SB 129 (Skinner, Chapter 69, Statutes of 2021) appropriated $9.25 million to DWR for the AR Program and $10 million to DWR to pilot FIRO at three reservoirs, among other provisions.

SB 758 (Block, Chapter 682, Statutes of 2015) established the AR Program, within DWR, to conduct research relating to climate forecasting and the causes and impacts that climate change has on ARs, and to take all actions within its existing authority to operate reservoirs in a manner that improves flood protection in the state and to reoperate flood control and water storage facilities to capture water generated by ARs, thereby increasing water supply, hydropower availability, and the reliability of water resources in the state.

-- END --

SENATE COMMITTEE ON GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATION

Senator Bill Dodd

Chair

2023 - 2024 Regular

Bill No: AB Hearing Date: 7/11/2023

SUBJECT:

DIGEST: This bill establishes the State-Federal Flood Operations Center (FOC), within the Department of Water Resources (DWR), for the purposes of functioning as the focal point for gathering, analyzing, and disseminating flood and water-related information to stakeholders, as specified. Additionally, this bill requires the FOC to develop and submit a report to the Legislature outlining necessary technological advancements for agile forecasting, as specified.

ANALYSIS:

Existing law:

1. The California Emergency Services Act (ESA) establishes the Office of Emergency Services (OES) for the purpose of mitigating the effects of natural, human-made, or war-caused emergencies.
2. Establishes the Department of Water Resources (DWR) and sets forth its powers and duties relating to water resources, as specified.
3. Establishes the Atmospheric Rivers: Research, Mitigation, and Climate Forecasting Program (AR Program) within the DWR to, upon appropriation of special fund moneys, research climate forecasting and the causes and impacts that climate change has on ARs, to operate reservoirs in a manner that improves flood protection in the state, and to reoperate flood control and water storage facilities to capture water generated by ARs.
4. Provides that any report required or requested by law to be submitted by a state or local agency to the Members of either house of the Legislature, shall, generally, instead be submitted as a printed copy to the Secretary of the Senate, as an electronic copy to the Chief Clerk of the Assembly, and as an electronic or printed copy to the Legislative Counsel.

This bill:

1. Establishes the FOC within DWR, which may be administered within the department’s divisions, offices, or programs.
2. The purpose of the FOC is to function as the focal point for gathering, analyzing, and disseminating flood and water-related information to stakeholders. To achieve this purpose, the FOC may do, but is not limited to doing, all of the following:
   1. Function during emergency situations to enable the department to centrally coordinate statewide emergency responses.
   2. Coordinate with the National Weather Service (NWS) to provide river forecasts based on expected precipitation and reservoir operations.
   3. Declare flood alerts and support those activities in coordination with relevant cooperating agencies and academic partners, including the ARs: Research, Mitigation, and Climate Forecasting Program, or its successor.
   4. Provide timely updates on activities relevant to cooperating agencies.
3. Requires the FOC and OES, in consultation with cooperating agencies, to develop and submit a report to the Legislature on or before June 1, 2025, that outlines necessary technological advancements for agile forecasting and identifies all of the following:
   1. Regions that are and were underserved.
   2. Gaps in data that would improve flood response.
   3. Strategies for improving communication and emergency response to identified regions.
4. Defines “cooperating agencies” to mean federal, state, and local agencies that engage in water and emergency management, including, but not limited to, the United States Bureau of Reclamation, the State Water Project, the Central Valley Flood Protection Board, OES, and the Department of Insurance (DOI).
5. Requires the report to be submitted in compliance with existing law and repeals the reporting requirement on June 1, 2026.
6. Includes legislative findings and declarations related to extreme weather incidents, including excessive heat and ARs, that pose an urgent threat to lives, property, and resources in California, as specified.

Background

Author Statement. According to the author’s office, “the recent series of atmospheric rivers brought unanticipated devastation across California and has led to multiple fatalities. In response to the storms, over 40 counties proclaimed a local emergency. Subsequently, the Governor declared a state of emergency and ultimately requested a major disaster declaration from the President to provide federal assistance to communities and individuals who suffered damages. Clearly, California would benefit from more accurate forecasts to determine the extent to which extreme weather events, such as atmospheric rivers and extended periods of extreme heat would result in significant damages or disruptions to lifeline infrastructure systems.”

Further, the author’s office notes, “earlier this year, the Committee on Emergency Management, the Committee on Water, Parks and Wildlife, and the Committee on Utilities and Energy Committee, convened a joint oversight hearing to evaluate California's preparedness for extreme atmospheric river incidents. The hearing was an opportunity to hear from the leading climate scientists and researchers on what type of incidents our emergency managers should be prepared for and how the State could improve local forecast models to more accurately predict local impacts and the need to quickly warn residents of any danger from flooding or extended power outages. The ultimate goal of this bill is identifying ways to improve California's forecasting capabilities and provide state and local emergency management with the information they need to prepare for these extreme atmospheric river incidents.”

A History of Floods. California has experienced destructive flood events throughout its history. Before January 2023, the last major and widespread flooding event was 1997 (the New Year’s Day floods, when 120,000 people were evacuated and 23,000 homes and businesses flooded). More recently, more local flood disasters include the Oroville Spillway in 2017 and the Russian River floods in 2019. Even before this year’s floods, every county in California has been declared a federal disaster area at least once for a flooding event over the last 30 years.

Estimates suggest more than 7.3 million people and structures valued at nearly $600 billion statewide are located in areas that have at least a 1-in-500 probability of flooding in any given year. In the Central Valley, 1.3 million people, $17 billion in agricultural economic activity, and $223 billion in homes, businesses, and structures are in flood risk areas. Factoring in future development, climate change, and potential losses to key infrastructure, those figures could climb much higher. Current projections indicate that peak flood flows will increase up to five times by 2072 in the Central Valley compared to past records. Despite their damaging potential, in some cases floods can have positive effects including replenishing groundwater basins, creating habitat for fish and wildlife, and improving water quality by flushing out contaminants.

A Future of Extreme Weather. In 2010, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) led a multidisciplinary team of leading earth scientists, engineers, and social scientists to create the ARkStorm Scenario: a detailed and realistic depiction of how a severe winter storm could affect the state. The ARkStrom Scenario shows that atmospheric rivers represent a nearly existential threat to California’s people, economy, and culture. A new ARkStorm scenario (ARkStorm 2.0) has recently been analyzed to reflect climate change data and advances in modeling to investigate the impact of a 30-day storm in a future climate (2071-2080), called ARkFuture. This new modeling shows that climate change will increase the severity of storms.

Current DWR Extreme Weather and Flooding Programs and Services. Year-round, the FOC is responsible for coordinating local, state, and federal flood operations. The FOC is housed within the DWR’s Division of Flood Management and is the facility from which DWR centrally coordinates emergency response state-wide. The FOC, when activated during a major weather event, operates 24 hours a day to monitor changing conditions, coordinate flood response efforts with local and federal partners, and inform the public.

The FOC coordinates with the NWS, among other organizations, to forecast the location, quantity, and timing of expected precipitation and issue river forecasts, high water notifications, flood alerts, and support flood mobilization as appropriate. Responses to this work may include changes in reservoir operations, additional interagency communication, levee patrol, and emergency support. DWR coordinates closely with OES when emergency operation centers are activated during a flood or other emergency follow the Standardized Emergency Management System protocol.

The California AR Program was created by California Senate Bill SB 758 (Block, Chapter 682, Statutes of 2015). The AR Program is housed in DWR in coordination with the Center for Western Weather Extremes (see below) and aims to develop the science of atmospheric rivers to support planning, forecasts and warning elements of flood management and water management in California.

The Flood Emergency Response Information Exchange provides participating agencies an online system to access and exchange current flood information in real-time through Web GIS interface. It integrates geo-referenced databases, a real-time data collection and exchange system, and a decision support system supporting other DWR programs, various hydrologic and hydraulic computer models and tools, and applicable flood-related documents.

The California Data Exchange Center installs, maintains, and operates an extensive hydrologic data collection network including automatic snow reporting gages for the Cooperative Snow Surveys Program and precipitation and river stage sensors for flood forecasting.

Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography. Among other initiatives, the Center for Western Weather Extremes coordinates an Atmospheric River Reconnaissance program with U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, DWR, U.S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The goal of this program is to support water management decisions and flood forecasting by developing and testing the potential of targeted airborne and buoy observations over the Northeast Pacific to improve forecasts of the landfall and impacts of atmospheric rivers on the U.S. West Coast at lead times of one to five days. Innovations in targeting methods, data assimilation, and regional forecast skill requirements are pursued through collaborative, cross-disciplinary, science-based strategies.

Challenge and Impact of Forecasting Extreme Weather. Although western U.S. forecasting of floods and the precipitation that causes them has improved over time, major gaps remain. The current science of weather forecasts can generally only support a zero to four-day lead time for decisions that would support water management and hazard mitigation. Many of these challenges result from errors in the prediction of atmospheric river landfall position, intensity, orientation, duration, and temperature.

Flooding disasters caused by extreme storms disproportionally impact vulnerable communities. According to a report by the Legislative Analyst’s Office, “much of the new housing construction in the state has occurred in areas that are at significant risk of the effects of climate change…[which means] in many cases, impacts will be felt most acutely by low income households who disproportionately live in areas of the state that will be exposed to higher risks and [live in the] types of housing that are typically less resilient.” Sufficient disaster preparedness may be too costly for people of low socioeconomic status, and there are barriers for vulnerable communities to have agile communication with government agencies.

2022-2023 Winter Storm Disasters in California. California began 2023 with as many as nine major storm events in around three weeks. These storms brought eight–⁠15 inches of rain in the valleys, 20–⁠30 inches of rain in the foothills, and 10–⁠15 feet of snow in the Sierra. While this precipitation did provide much-needed drought relief, it was accompanied by intense floods and winds reaching up to 90 mph that caused over $1 billion in damage and the tragic loss of at least 22 lives.

The phenomenon responsible for exacerbating the impact of these storms was a series of ARs, which are long corridors that transport concentrated water vapor through the air from the tropics to California. These events can be either hazardous or beneficial depending on their intensity. When atmospheric river-fed storms approach land and encounter high elevation mountain ranges, such as the Sierra Nevada, moist air rises and cools producing copious amounts of precipitation. Some of these atmospheric rivers can carry 7.5–⁠15 times the average flow out of the Mississippi River.

Based on forecasts of the high winds, excessive rainfall, and the potential for flooding, local operational areas (counties) began proclaiming local emergencies prior to the damaging New Year’s Eve storm. On January 4, 2023 the Governor requested and secured an Emergency Declaration for direct Federal Assistance from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). As the series of atmospheric rivers continued to cause floods, extended power outages, and displace thousands of residents, a majority of California’s counties proclaimed local emergencies and ultimately the Governor requested an Expedited Major Disaster Declaration on January 12, 2023. President Biden approved the Major Disaster Declaration on January 14, 2023.

State-Federal Flood Operations Center. This bill codifies the FOC, within DWR, to function as the focal point for gathering, analyzing, and disseminating flood and water-related information to stakeholders. This includes coordinating statewide emergency responses, partnering with the NWS for river forecasts, declaring flood alerts, and providing updates on relevant activities to cooperating agencies.

This bill requires the FOC and OES to develop and submit a report to the Legislature, by June 1, 2025, that outlines necessary technological advancements for agile forecasting. The report will identify regions that are and were underserved, gaps in data that would improve flood response, and strategies for improving communication and emergency response to identified regions.

Prior/Related Legislation

SB 366 (Caballero, 2023) revises and recasts the California Water Plan (Water Plan) and requires the Water Plan, commencing with the 2028 update, to be a comprehensive plan for addressing the state’s water needs and meeting water specified long-term supply targets. (Pending in the Assembly Water Parks and Wildlife Committee)

SB 638 (Eggman, 2023) the Climate Resiliency and Flood Protection Bond Act of 2024, which would, if approved by voters, authorize $6 billion in general obligation bonds for flood protection and climate resiliency projects, as provided. (Pending in the Assembly Water, Parks, and Wildlife Committee)

SB 659 (Ashby, 2023) establishes the California Water Supply Solutions Act of 2023 to, among other things, require the DWR to develop a groundwater recharge action plan by January 1, 2026, that provides actionable recommendations that result in the ability to create additional groundwater recharge capacity. (Pending in the Assembly Water, Parks, and Wildlife Committee)

AB 30 (Ward, 2023) renames and reconfigures the existing AR Program as the “Atmospheric River Research and Forecast Improvement Program: Enabling Climate Adaptation Through Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations and Hazard Resiliency Program (AR/FIRO Program), as specified. (Pending in the Senate Appropriations Committee)

SB 129 (Skinner, Chapter 69, Statutes of 2021) appropriated $9.25 million to DWR for the AR Program and $10 million to DWR to pilot FIRO at three reservoirs, among other provisions.

SB 758 (Block, Chapter 682, Statutes of 2015) established the AR Program, within DWR, to conduct research relating to climate forecasting and the causes and impacts that climate change has on ARs, and to take all actions within its existing authority to operate reservoirs in a manner that improves flood protection in the state and to reoperate flood control and water storage facilities to capture water generated by ARs, thereby increasing water supply, hydropower availability, and the reliability of water resources in the state.

FISCAL EFFECT: Appropriation: No Fiscal Com.: Yes Local: No

SUPPORT:

Association of California Water Agencies

Sonoma Water

OPPOSITION:

None received

ARGUMENTS IN SUPPORT: In support of the bill, the Association of California Water Agencies writes that, “California’s last round of atmospheric rivers in January 2023, resulted in significant flooding throughout Southern, Central, and Northern California, resulting in the loss of power to homes and businesses, evacuation orders, and damage to infrastructure. As California continues to experience the impacts of climate change, there is a need for improved forecasting capabilities and data to inform emergency response operations for water management and public safety. AB 277 would identify the necessary technological advancements, data gaps, and communication strategies for the State to respond to flood events.”

DUAL REFERRAL: Senate Natural Resources & Water Committee (11-0) and Senate Governmental Organization Committee

SENATE COMMITTEE ON NATURAL RESOURCES AND WATER

Senator Dave Min, Chair

2023 - 2024 Regular

Bill No: AB 277 Hearing Date: June 22, 2023

Subject: Extreme Weather Forecast and Threat Intelligence Integration Center

BACKGROUND AND EXISTING LAW

Background

California began 2023 with as many as nine major storm events in around three weeks. These storms brought 8–15 inches of rain in the valleys, 20–30 inches of rain in the foothills, and 10–15 feet of snow in the Sierra. While this precipitation did provide much-needed drought relief, it was accompanied by intense floods and winds reaching up to 90 mph that caused over $1 billion in damage and the tragic loss of at least 22 lives. The phenomenon responsible for exacerbating the impact of these storms: atmospheric rivers. Atmospheric rivers are long “corridors” in the atmosphere that transport concentrated water vapor through the air from the tropics to California; these events can be either hazardous or beneficial depending on their intensity. When atmospheric river-fed storms approach land and encounter high elevation mountain ranges, such as the Sierra Nevada, moist air rises, vapor condenses, clouds form, and copious amounts of precipitation fall. Some of these atmospheric rivers can contain water vapor amounts that are 7.5–15 times the average flow of the Mississippi River.

Based on forecasts of the high winds, excessive rainfall, and the potential for flooding, local operational areas (counties) began proclaiming local emergencies prior to the damaging New Year’s Eve 2022 storm. On January 4, 2023 the Governor requested and secured an Emergency Declaration for direct Federal Assistance from the Federal Emergency Management Agency. As the series of atmospheric rivers continued to cause floods, extend power outages, and displace thousands of residents, a majority of California’s counties proclaimed local emergencies and ultimately the Governor requested an Expedited Major Disaster Declaration on January 12, 2023. President Biden approved the Major Disaster Declaration on January 14, 2023.

A History of Floods. California has experienced destructive flood events throughout its history. Before January 2023, the last major and widespread flooding event was 1997 (the New Year’s Day floods, when 120,000 people were evacuated and 23,000 homes and businesses flooded). More recently, more local flood disasters include the Oroville Spillway in 2017 and the Russian River floods in 2019. Even before this year’s floods, every county in California has been declared a federal disaster area at least once for a flooding event over the last 30 years.

Estimates suggest more than 7.3 million people and structures valued at nearly $600 billion statewide are located in areas that have at least a 1-in-500 probability of flooding in any given year. In the Central Valley, 1.3 million people, $17 billion in agricultural economic activity, and $223 billion in homes, businesses, and structures are in flood risk areas. Factoring in future development, climate change, and potential losses to key infrastructure, those figures could climb much higher. Current projections indicate that peak flood flows will increase up to five times by 2072 in the Central Valley compared to past records. Despite their damaging potential, in some cases floods can have positive effects including replenishing groundwater basins, creating habitat for fish and wildlife, and improving water quality by flushing out contaminants.

A Future of Extreme Weather. In 2010, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) led a multidisciplinary team of leading earth scientists, engineers, and social scientists to create the ARkStorm Scenario: a detailed and realistic depiction of how a severe winter storm could affect the state. The ARkStrom Scenario shows that atmospheric rivers represent a nearly existential threat to California’s people, economy, and culture. A new ARkStorm scenario (ARkStorm 2.0) has recently been analyzed to reflect climate change data and advances in modeling to investigate the impact of a 30-day storm in a future climate (2071-2080), called ARkFuture. This new modeling shows that climate change will increase the severity of storms.

Current DWR extreme weather and flooding programs and services. Year-round, the State-Federal Flood Operations Center (FOC) is responsible for coordinating local, state, and federal flood operations. The FOC is housed within the Department of Water Resources’ (DWR’s) Division of Flood Management and is the facility from which DWR centrally coordinates emergency response state-wide. The FOC, when activated during a major weather event, operates 24 hours a day to monitor changing conditions, coordinate flood response efforts with local and federal partners, and inform the public. The FOC coordinates with the National Weather Service, among other organizations, to forecast the location, quantity, and timing of expected precipitation and issue river forecasts, high water notifications, flood alerts, and support flood mobilization as appropriate. Responses to this work may include changes in reservoir operations, additional interagency communication, levee patrol, and emergency support. DWR coordinates closely with the California Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES) when emergency operation centers are activated during a flood or other emergency follow the Standardized Emergency Management System protocol.

The California Atmospheric River Program was created by California Senate Bill SB 758 (Block) in 2015. The Atmospheric River Program is housed in DWR in coordination with the Center for Western Weather Extremes (see below) and aims to develop the science of atmospheric rivers to support planning, forecasts and warning elements of flood management and water management in California.

The Flood Emergency Response Information Exchange provides participating agencies an online system to access and exchange current flood information in real-time through Web GIS interface. It integrates geo-referenced databases, a real-time data collection and exchange system, and a decision support system supporting other DWR programs, various hydrologic and hydraulic computer models and tools, and applicable flood-related documents.

The California Data Exchange Center installs, maintains, and operates an extensive hydrologic data collection network including automatic snow reporting gages for the Cooperative Snow Surveys Program and precipitation and river stage sensors for flood forecasting.

Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography. Among other initiatives, the Center for Western Weather Extremes coordinates an Atmospheric River Reconnaissance program with U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, DWR, U.S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The goal of this program is to support water management decisions and flood forecasting by developing and testing the potential of targeted airborne and buoy observations over the Northeast Pacific to improve forecasts of the landfall and impacts of atmospheric rivers on the U.S. West Coast at lead times of 1–5 days. Innovations in targeting methods, data assimilation, and regional forecast skill requirements are pursued through collaborative, cross-disciplinary, science-based strategies.

Challenge and impact of forecasting extreme weather. Although western U.S. forecasting of floods and the precipitation that causes them has improved over time, major gaps remain. The current science of weather forecasts can generally only support a 0–4-day lead time for decisions that would support water management and hazard mitigation. Many of these challenges result from errors in the prediction of atmospheric river landfall position, intensity, orientation, duration, and temperature.^[1]

Flooding disasters caused by extreme storms disproportionally impact vulnerable communities. According to a report by the Legislative Analyst’s Office, “much of the new housing construction in the state has occurred in areas that are at significant risk of the effects of climate change…[which means] in many cases, impacts will be felt most acutely by low‑income households who disproportionately live in areas of the state that will be exposed to higher risks and [live in the] types of housing that are typically less resilient.”^[2] Sufficient disaster preparedness may be too costly for people of low socioeconomic status, and there are barriers for vulnerable communities to have agile communication with government agencies.^[3]

PROPOSED LAW

This bill codifies the State-Federal Flood Operations Center in DWR and tasks it with submitting a report regarding forecasting to the Legislature. Specifically, this bill:

1. Codifies the FOC in DWR to function as the focal point for gathering, analyzing, and disseminating flood and water-related information to stakeholders.
   
2. Authorizes FOC to do all of the following:
   1. Function during emergency situations to enable DWR to centrally coordinate statewide emergency responses.
   2. Coordinate with the National Weather Service to provide river forecasts based on expected precipitation and reservoir operations.
   3. Declare flood alerts and support those activities in coordination with relevant cooperating agencies and academic partners, including the Atmospheric Rivers: Research, Mitigation, and Climate Forecasting Program.
   4. Provide timely updates on activities relevant to cooperating agencies.
      
3. Requires FOC and Cal OES, in consultation with cooperating agencies, to develop and submit a report to the Legislature that outlines necessary technological advancements for agile forecasting and identifies all of the following:
   1. Regions that are and were underserved.
   2. Gaps in data that would improve flood response.
   3. Strategies for improving communication and emergency response to identified regions.
      
4. Defines “cooperating agencies,” as federal, state, and local agencies that engage in water and emergency management.

ARGUMENTS IN SUPPORT

According to the author, “[t]he recent series of atmospheric rivers brought unanticipated devastation across California and has led to multiple fatalities. In response to the storms, over 40 counties proclaimed a local emergency. Subsequently, the Governor declared a state of emergency and ultimately requested a major disaster declaration from the President to provide federal assistance to communities and individuals who suffered damages. Clearly, California would benefit from more accurate forecasts to determine the extent to which extreme weather events, such as atmospheric rivers and extended periods of extreme heat would result in significant damages or disruptions to lifeline infrastructure systems.

Earlier this year, the Committee on Emergency Management, the Committee on Water, Parks and Wildlife, and the Committee on Utilities and Energy Committee, convened a joint oversight hearing to evaluate California's preparedness for extreme atmospheric river incidents. The hearing was an opportunity to hear from the leading climate scientists and researchers on what type of incidents our emergency managers should be prepared for and how the State could improve local forecast models to more accurately predict local impacts and the need to quickly warn residents of any danger from flooding or extended power outages. The ultimate goal of this bill is identifying ways to improve California's forecasting capabilities and provide state and local emergency management with the information they need to prepare for these extreme atmospheric river incidents.”

ARGUMENTS IN OPPOSITION

None received

COMMENTS

Double referral. This bill is double referred with the Senate Governmental Organization Committee, with this committee being the committee of first referral. Elements of this bill under the jurisdiction of the Senate Governmental Organization Committee are included here for context and completeness only and will be discussed before that committee.

Planning for the future. This bill is about planning for the future. It refers to the Atmospheric Rivers: Research, Mitigation, and Climate Forecasting Program, which is the subject of another bill, AB 30 (Ward). AB 30 proposes to rename the Atmospheric Rivers: Research, Mitigation, and Climate Forecasting Program as the Atmospheric Rivers Research and Forecast Improvement Program: Enabling Climate Adaptation Through Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations and Hazard Resiliency (AR/FIRO). While it is unknown if AB 30 will pass the Legislature and get signed by the Governor, the committee may wish to amend the bill to also refer to the successor agency of the Atmospheric Rivers: Research, Mitigation, and Climate Forecasting Program to account for any future potential name changes, whether made by AB 30 or another legislative proposal. (See Amendment 1).

Related legislation

AB 30 (Ward, 2023) of the current legislative session, renames and reconfigures the Atmospheric Rivers: Research, Mitigation, and Climate Forecasting Program as the Atmospheric Rivers Research and Forecast Improvement Program: Enabling Climate Adaptation Through Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations and Hazard Resiliency (AR/FIRO) Program. AB 30 is pending before this committee.

SUGGESTED AMENDMENTS

AMENDMENT 1

Amend Water Code § 347.5(b)(3) as follows:

(3) Declare flood alerts and support those activities in coordination with relevant cooperating agencies and academic partners, including the Atmospheric Rivers: Research, Mitigation, and Climate Forecasting Program, or its successor.

SUPPORT

None Received

OPPOSITION

None Received

-- END --

1. Ralph, M. F. “West Coast Forecast Challenges and Development of Atmospheric River Reconnaissance,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, (101) 2020. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/101/8/bamsD190183.xml ↑

2. Petek, G. LAO, Climate Change Impact Across California, (2022) https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4584#Major_Climate_Change_Impacts_on_Housing ↑

3. Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration. “Disaster Technical Assistance Center supplemental Research Bulletin, Greater Impact: How Disasters Affect People of Low Socioeconomic Status” 2017 ↑

ASSEMBLY THIRD READING

ATR Bill Id:AB 277

Author:(Rodriguez)

As Amended Ver:May 18, 2023

Majority vote

SUMMARY

Codifies the State-Federal Flood Operations Center (FOC) in the Department of Water Resources (DWR) and tasks it with submitting a report regarding forecasting to the Legislature.

Major Provisions

1. Establishes that the purpose of the FOC is to function as a focal point for the collection, analysis, and dissemination of flood and water-related information.
2. Requires that the FOC and the California Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), with the cooperating agencies, develop and submit a report to the Legislature that outlines necessary technological advancements for agile forecasting and identifies gaps in data, underserved regions, and strategies for improving communication and emergency response. Cooperating agencies include the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, the State Water Project, the Central Valley Flood Protection Board, Cal OES, and the Department of Insurance.

COMMENTS

Equity Impact: According to the author's staff, "since disasters have a disproportionate impact on vulnerable individuals and communities, this bill seeks to mitigate risks posed by extreme atmospheric river (AR) incidents and make communities more resilient.

Recent Floods: California has experienced destructive flood events throughout its history. Before January 2023, the last major and widespread flooding event was 1997 (the New Year's Day floods, when 120,000 people were evacuated and 23,000 homes and businesses flooded). More recently, local flood disasters include the Oroville Spillway in 2017 and the Russian River floods in 2019. Even before the floods in 2023, every county in California has been declared a federal disaster area for a flooding event at least once over the last 30 years.

A recent study by researchers at the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes housed at Scripps examined the February 2017 AR event that contributed to the Oroville crisis and found that "California's reliance on precipitation from [ARs] is expected to increase as our climate warms." Similarly, research published in August 2022 ("ARkFuture") shows how climate change is leading to more extreme AR events. ARkFuture models a 30-day "megastorm" event in which "[a]tmospheric rivers are the primary storm mode" causing extremely high precipitation and associated runoff that is two to four times higher than historical averages. Such an event would result in a "megaflood." Better modeling and forecasting could help to mitigate the risks associated with such an event.

The FOC is responsible for coordinating local, state, and federal flood operations year-round. The FOC is housed within DWR's Division of Flood Management and is the facility from which DWR centrally coordinates emergency response statewide. When activated during a major weather event, the FOC operates 24 hours a day in coordination with the National Weather Service to monitor changing conditions, coordinate flood flight efforts with local and federal partners, and keep the public informed. DWR also coordinates closely with Cal OES when emergency operation centers are activated during a flood or other emergency.

According to the Author

The recent series of atmospheric rivers brought unanticipated devastation across California and has led to multiple fatalities. In response to the storms, over 40 counties proclaimed a local emergency. Subsequently, the Governor declared a state of emergency and ultimately requested a major disaster declaration from the President to provide federal assistance to communities and individuals who suffered damages. Clearly, California would benefit from more accurate forecasts to determine the extent to which extreme weather events, such as atmospheric rivers and extended periods of extreme heat would result in significant damages or disruptions to lifeline infrastructure systems.

Earlier this year, the Committee on Emergency Management, the Committee on Water, Parks and Wildlife, and the Committee on Utilities and Energy Committee, convened a joint oversight hearing to evaluate California's preparedness for extreme atmospheric river incidents. The hearing was an opportunity to hear from the leading climate scientists and researchers on what type of incidents our emergency managers should be prepared for and how the State could improve local forecast models to more accurately predict local impacts and the need to quickly warn residents of any danger from flooding or extended power outages. The ultimate goal of this bill is identifying ways to improve California's forecasting capabilities and provide state and local emergency management with the information they need to prepare for these extreme atmospheric river incidents.

Arguments in Support

Sonoma Water writes in support, "Sonoma Water, along with local, state, and federal partners, has been at the forefront of resilience efforts to atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation events. We have been the test bed for Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO), which we have proven to be a viable new method for timing releases from reservoirs based on the latest forecasting technology and modeling. We have also led the implementation of a DWR grant placing a system of five x-band radars and one c-band radar throughout the Bay Area to increase our forecasting capabilities and improve our understanding of where and at what intensity precipitation will fall. This system is known as Advanced Quantitative Precipitation Information (AQPI) that has a goal of improving emergency responses to intense storms. Both FIRO and AQPI are pushing to enhance our ability to forecast, predict, and understand extreme precipitation events so that we can be better prepared to mitigate their devastating impacts. What we have learned is that more information is critical, and disseminating that information to emergency responders can decrease loss of life and property value."

Arguments in Opposition

None on file.

FISCAL COMMENTS

According to the Assembly Committee on Appropriations, "Ongoing General Fund (GF) cost pressures of approximately $6 million to DWR to codify the FOC's existing operations, as such funding would no longer be available to DWR to use for another purpose. Additionally, DWR notes one-time GF cost pressures of approximately $1.3 million per week in years when the FOC is activated for flood conditions. For example, this year, DWR anticipates the FOC will be active through July, for a total of 24 weeks in 2023, at a cost of approximately $32 million. Minor and absorbable costs to OES to lead the report with the FOC, and to cooperating agencies to consult on the report with FOC and OES."

VOTES

ASM EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT: 7-0-0

YES: Rodriguez, Waldron, Aguiar-Curry, Alvarez, Calderon, Megan Dahle, Schiavo

ASM WATER, PARKS, AND WILDLIFE: 15-0-0

YES: Bauer-Kahan, Mathis, Alanis, Bennett, Megan Dahle, Davies, Friedman, Hart, Kalra, Pellerin, Blanca Rubio, Schiavo, Villapudua, Ward, Weber

ASM APPROPRIATIONS: 11-0-5

YES: Holden, Bryan, Calderon, Wendy Carrillo, Mike Fong, Hart, Lowenthal, Papan, Pellerin, Weber, Ortega

ABS, ABST OR NV: Megan Dahle, Dixon, Mathis, Robert Rivas, Sanchez

UPDATED

VERSION: May 18, 2023

CONSULTANT: Mike Dayton / E.M. / (916) 319-3802 FN: 0000902

Date of Hearing: May 10, 2023

ASSEMBLY COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS

Chris Holden, Chair

ABPCA Bill Id:AB 277

Author:(Rodriguez) – As Amended Ver:April 7, 2023

Urgency: No State Mandated Local Program: No Reimbursable: No

SUMMARY:

This bill establishes the State-Federal Flood Operations Center (FOC) within the Department of Water Resources (DWR) in statute.

Specifically, this bill:

1. Establishes the FOC administered by DWR to function as the focal point for gathering, analyzing, and disseminating flood and water information to stakeholders, including coordination of statewide emergency responses.
2. Requires, by June 1, 2025, the FOC and the Office of Emergency Services (OES), in consultation with cooperating agencies, to submit a report to the Legislature that outlines necessary technological advancements for agile forecasting, including gaps in data, to improve flood response. Cooperating agencies are federal, state, and local agencies that engage in water and emergency management, including the United States Bureau of Reclamation, State Water Project, Central Valley Flood Protection Board, OES, and Department of Insurance.
3. Authorizes, upon appropriation, OES to expend federal emergency preparedness and hazard mitigation funds to fill any technological, operational, or preparedness gap identified in the report.

FISCAL EFFECT:

1. Ongoing General Fund (GF) costs of approximately $6 million to DWR to codify the FOC, as such funding would no longer be available to DWR to use for another purpose. Additionally, DWR notes one-time GF costs of approximately $1.3 million per week in years when the FOC is activated for flood conditions. This year, DWR anticipates the FOC will be active through July, for a total of 24 weeks in 2023, at a cost of approximately $32 million.
2. Minor and absorbable costs to OES to lead the report with the FOC, and to cooperating agencies to consult on the report with FOC and OES.
3. Cost pressures to redirect federal funds already specified for existing uses to the purposes specified by this bill, resulting in GF cost pressures to backfill the redirected amount.

COMMENTS:

1. Purpose. According to the author, “this bill will improve California’s forecasting capabilities and provide state and local emergency management with the information they need to prepare for these extreme atmospheric river incidents.” The author notes this bill stems from a joint oversight hearing of the Committees on Emergency Management, Water, Parks and Wildlife, and Utilities and Energy to evaluate California’s preparedness for extreme atmospheric river incidents. This bill is supported by Sonoma Water.
2. Codifying the FOC. The FOC is responsible for coordinating local, state, and federal flood operations year-round. The FOC is housed within DWR’s Division of Flood Management and is the facility from which DWR centrally coordinates emergency response statewide. When activated during a major weather event, the FOC operates 24 hours a day in coordination with the National Weather Service to monitor changing conditions, coordinate flood flight efforts with local and federal partners, and keep the public informed. DWR also coordinates closely with OES when emergency operation centers are activated during a flood or other emergency. This bill formally establishes the existing FOC in statute and requires the FOC to submit a report to the Legislature outlining necessary technological advancements for agile forecasting. This bill also authorizes, upon appropriation, OES to expend Federal Emergency Management Agency Preparedness Grant and federal Hazard Mitigation Grant Program funds to fill any technological, operational, or preparedness gap identified in the report.

Analysis Prepared by: Irene Ho / APPR. / (916) 319-2081

Date of Hearing: April 18, 2023

ASSEMBLY COMMITTEE ON WATER, PARKS, AND WILDLIFE

Rebecca Bauer-Kahan, Chair

ABPCA Bill Id:AB 277 (

Author:Rodriguez) – As Amended Ver:April 7, 2023

SUBJECT: Extreme Weather Forecast and Threat Intelligence Integration Center

SUMMARY: Codifies the State-Federal Flood Operations Center (FOC) in the Department of Water Resources (DWR) and tasks it with submitting a report to the Legislature. Specifically, this bill:

1. Establishes that the purpose of the FOC is to function as a focal point for the collection, analysis, and dissemination of flood and water-related information.
2. Recognizes that the FOC functions during emergency events to coordinate emergency response, coordinates with the National Weather Service to provide river forecasts, and declares flood alerts, and coordinates and updates relevant cooperating agencies.
3. Requires that the cooperating agencies include the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, the State Water Project, the Central Valley Flood Protection Board, the California Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), and the Department of Insurance.
4. Requires that the FOC and Cal OES, with the cooperating agencies, develop and submit a report to the Legislature that outlines necessary technological advancements for agile forecasting and identifies gaps in data, underserved regions, and strategies for improving communication and emergency response.
5. Allows Cal OES to expend Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Preparedness Grant and federal Hazard Mitigation Grant Program funds to fill any technological, operational, or preparedness gaps identified in the report.
6. Makes legislative findings and declarations related to extreme weather incidents.

EXISTING LAW:

1. Establishes DWR within the Natural Resources Agency and sets forth its powers and duties relating to water resources (Water Code § 120).
2. Allows DWR to respond in times of extraordinary stress and disaster caused by storms and flood (Water Code § 128).
3. Establishes the Atmospheric Rivers: Research, Mitigation, and Climate Forecasting Program in DWR. Requires DWR, upon an appropriation for purposes of the program, to research climate forecasting and the causes and impacts that climate change has on atmospheric rivers, to operate reservoirs in a manner that improves flood protection, and to reoperate flood control and water storage facilities to capture water generated by atmospheric rivers (Water Code § 347).
4. Under the California Emergency Services Act, establishes the Cal OES within the office of the Governor for the purpose of mitigating the effects of natural, manmade, or war-caused emergencies (Government Code § 8550).
5. Requires that 180 days after each declared disaster, Cal OES with relevant state and local agencies complete an after-action report to review the public safety response and disaster recovery activities and conclusions and make recommendations based on the findings [Government Code § 8607(f)].
6. Requires that Cal OES give local jurisdictions that do not have a local hazard mitigation plan preference for funding by the Pre-disaster Mitigation Program, the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program, and the Flood Mitigation Assistance Program to assist in developing and adopting a local mitigation plan (Government Code § 65302.6).

FISCAL EFFECT: Unknown. This bill is keyed fiscal.

COMMENTS:

1. Purpose of this bill. This bill establishes the FOC in statute and tasks it with generating a report with relevant cooperating agencies on technological advancements needed for more agile forecasting. This bill also allows Cal OES to extend funding to address the needs identified in the report. According to the author, “this bill will improve California’s forecasting capabilities and provide state and local emergency management with the information they need to prepare for these extreme atmospheric river incidents.”
2. Background. California began 2023 with as many as nine major storm events in around three weeks. These storms brought 8–⁠15 inches of rain in the valleys, 20–⁠30 inches of rain in the foothills, and 10–⁠15 feet of snow in the Sierra. While this precipitation did provide much-needed drought relief, it was accompanied by intense floods and winds reaching up to 90 mph that caused over $1 billion in damage and the tragic loss of at least 22 lives. The phenomena responsible for exacerbating the impact of these storms: atmospheric rivers (AR). ARs are long corridors that transport concentrated water vapor through the air from the tropics to California; these events can be either hazardous or beneficial depending on their intensity. When AR-fed storms approach land and encounter high elevation mountain ranges, such as the Sierra Nevada, moist air rises and cools producing copious amounts of precipitation. Some of these ARs can carry 25 times the average flow out of the Mississippi River.

Based on forecasts of the high winds, excessive rainfall, and the potential for flooding, local operational areas (counties) began proclaiming local emergencies prior to the damaging New Year’s Eve storm. On January 4, 2023 the Governor requested and secured an Emergency Declaration for direct Federal Assistance from FEMA. As the series of ARs continued to cause floods, extend power outages, and displace thousands of residents, a majority of California’s counties proclaimed local emergencies and ultimately the Governor requested an Expedited Major Disaster Declaration on January 12, 2023. President Biden approved the Major Disaster Declaration on January 14, 2023.

A History of Floods. California has experienced destructive flood events throughout its history. Before January 2023, the last major and widespread flooding event was 1997 (the New Year’s Day floods, when 120,000 people were evacuated and 23,000 homes and businesses flooded). More recently, more local flood disasters include the Oroville Spillway in 2017 and the Russian River floods in 2019. Even before this year’s floods, every county in California has been declared a federal disaster area at least once for a flooding event over the last 30 years.

Estimates suggest more than 7.3 million people and structures valued at nearly $600 billion statewide are located in areas that have at least a 1-in-500 probability of flooding in any given year. In the Central Valley, 1.3 million people, $17 billion in agriculture economic activity, and $223 billion in homes, businesses, and structures are in flood risk areas. Factoring in future development, climate change, and potential losses to key infrastructure, those figures could climb much higher. Current projections indicate that peak flood flows will increase up to five times by 2072 in the Central Valley compared to past records. Despite their damaging potential, in some cases floods can have positive effects including replenishing groundwater basins, creating habitat for fish and wildlife, and improving water quality by flushing out contaminants.

A Future of Extreme Weather. A recent study by researchers at the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes housed at Scripps examined the February 2017 AR event that contributed to the Oroville crisis and found that “California’s reliance on precipitation from (ARs) is expected to increase as our climate warms.” Similarly, research published in August 2022 (“ARkFuture”) shows how climate change is leading to more extreme AR events. ARkFuture models a 30-day “megastorm” event in which “Atmospheric rivers are the primary storm mode” causing extremely high precipitation and associated runoff that is two to four times higher than historical averages.^[1] Such an event would result in a “megaflood.” Better modeling and forecasting could help to mitigate the risks associated with such an event.

Current DWR extreme weather and flooding programs and services. Year round, FOC, is responsible for coordinating local, state, and federal flood operations. The FOC is housed within DWR’s Division of Flood Management and is the facility from which DWR centrally coordinates emergency response state-wide. The FOC, when activated during a major weather event, operates 24 hours a day to monitor changing conditions, coordinating flood fight efforts with local and federal partners, and informing the public. The FOC coordinates with the National Weather Service, among other organizations, to forecast the location, quantity, and timing of expected precipitation and issues river forecasts, high water notifications, flood alerts, and support flood mobilization as appropriate. Responses to this work may include changes in reservoir operations, additional interagency communication, levee patrol, and emergency support. DWR coordinates closely with Cal OES when emergency operation centers are activated during a flood or other emergency follow the Standardized Emergency Management System protocol. Agencies including Cal OES, CAL FIRE, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, the State Water Project, the Central Valley Flood Protection Board, and local agencies are identified as Key Cooperating Agencies in the FOC.

The California Atmospheric River Program was created by California Senate Bill SB 758 (Block) in 2015. The AR Program is housed in DWR in coordination with the Center for Western Weather Extremes (see below) and aims to develop the science of ARs to support planning, forecasts and warning elements of flood management and water management in California.

The Flood Emergency Response Information Exchange provides participating agencies an online system to access and exchange current flood information in real-time through Web GIS interface. It integrates geo-referenced databases, a real-time data collection and exchange system, and a decision support system supporting other DWR programs, various hydrologic and hydraulic computer models and tools, and applicable flood-related documents.

The California Data Exchange Center installs, maintains, and operates an extensive hydrologic data collection network including automatic snow reporting gages for the Cooperative Snow Surveys Program and precipitation and river stage sensors for flood forecasting.

Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography. Among other initiatives, the Center for Western Weather Extremes coordinates an Atmospheric River Reconnaissance program with U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, DWR, U.S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The goal of this program is to support water management decisions and flood forecasting by developing and testing the potential of targeted airborne and buoy observations over the Northeast Pacific to improve forecasts of the landfall and impacts of ARs on the U.S. West Coast at lead times of 1–5 days. Innovations in targeting methods, data assimilation and regional forecast skill requirements are pursued through collaborative, cross-disciplinary, science-based strategies.

Emergency grant funds. FEMA has the authority to deliver numerous disaster and non-disaster financial assistance programs. One such program is the Emergency Management Performance Grant that provides state, local, tribal and territorial emergency management agencies with the resources required for implementation of the National Preparedness System and works toward the National Preparedness Goal of a secure and resilient nation. The EMPG’s allowable costs support efforts to build and sustain core capabilities across the prevention, protection, mitigation, response and recovery mission areas. FEMA Hazard Mitigation Grant Program provides funding to state, local, tribal and territorial governments so they can develop hazard mitigation plans and rebuild in a way that reduces, or mitigates, future disaster losses in their communities. When requested by an authorized representative, this grant funding is available after a presidentially declared disaster.

Challenge and impact of forecasting extreme weather. Although western U.S. forecasting of floods and the precipitation that causes them has improved over time, major gaps remain. The current science of weather forecasts can generally only support a 0–4-day lead time for decisions that would support water management and hazard mitigation. Many of these challenges result from errors in the prediction of AR landfall position, intensity, orientation, duration, and temperature.^[2]

Flooding disasters caused by extreme storms disproportionally impact vulnerable communities. According to a report by the Legislative Analyst’s Office, “much of the new housing construction in the state has occurred in areas that are at significant risk of the effects of climate change…[which means] in many cases, impacts will be felt most acutely by low‑income households who disproportionately live in areas of the state that will be exposed to higher risks and [live in the] types of housing that are typically less resilient.”^[3] Sufficient disaster preparedness may be too costly for people of low socioeconomic status and there are barriers for vulnerable communities to have agile communication with government agencies.^[4]

Reporting requirements. Within 180 days a declared emergency, Cal OES with other involved agencies is responsible review of the public safety response and disaster recovery activities and conclusions and recommendations based on findings (Government Code § 8607). Further, any state agency responding to an emergency declared by the governor, has 90 days to submit an after action report to Cal OES. This after action report should include a review of response actions taken, application of the Standardized Emergency Management System (SEMS), suggested modifications to SEMS, necessary modifications to plans and procedures, identified training needs, and recovery activities to date.

This seems to be interpreted as a federally declared emergency as the last available DWR after action report is from 2017 in response to a president and governor declared emergency for winter storms. There have, however been several other governor-only declared emergencies, including for atmospheric river storm systems in the winters of 2019 and 2021.^[5] The report required in this bill is distinct from the required after action reports as it focuses on the technological advances and related processes that would be needed for better forecasting of such events, which is distinct from the SEMS evaluation of most after action reports.

1. Double referral. This bill passed the Assembly Committee on Emergency Management on March 13, 2023 by a vote of 7-0.
2. Related Legislation. AB 30 (Ward) of the current legislative session reconfigures the existing Atmospheric Rivers: Research, Mitigation, and Climate Forecasting Program within DWR and tasks the program with developing and implementing new methods to better predict the impact of ARs on water supply, flooding, post-wildfire debris flows, and the environment. AB 30 is pending in the Assembly Appropriations Committee.

SB 231 (Hurtado) of the current legislative session requires the State Water Resources Control Board and DWR, and the State Department of Public Health to report on the feasibility, estimated costs, and means of financing a coordinated water measurement database. SB 231 is pending in the Senate Natural Resources and Water Committee.

SB 262 (Hurtado) of the current legislative session requires DWR, subject to an appropriation by the Legislature, to administer the California Farmworkers Drought and Flood Resilience Pilot Project, as specified. SB 262 is pending in the Senate Governance and Finance Committee.

SB 209 (Dodd), Chapter 405, Statutes of 2019, establishes a multi-agency California Wildfire Warning Center to monitor fire-weather and threat condition and to enhance fire-weather forecasting models.

SB 758 (Block), Chapter 682, Statutes of 2015, establishes the Atmospheric Rivers Program at the DWR to research, contingent on appropriation of special fund monies, the causes and effects of atmospheric rivers in order to increase California's water supply and water reliability and improve flood control.

REGISTERED SUPPORT / OPPOSITION:

Support

None on file

Opposition

None on file

Analysis Prepared by: Stephanie Mitchell / W., P., & W. / (916) 319-2096

1. Xingying Huang and Daniel Swain, “Climate change is increasing the risk of a California megaflood,” Science Advances, 8 (2022): eabq0995, https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abq0995. ↑

2. Ralph, M. F. “West Coast Forecast Challenges and Development of Atmospheric River Reconnaissance,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, (101) 2020. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/101/8/bamsD190183.xml ↑

3. Petek, G. LAO, Climate Change Impact Across California, (2022) https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4584#Major_Climate_Change_Impacts_on_Housing ↑

4. Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration. “Disaster Technical Assistance Center supplemental Research Bulletin, Greater Impact: How Disasters Affect People of Low Socioeconomic Status” 2017 ↑

5. List of disasters | FTB.ca.gov ↑

Date of Hearing: March 13, 2023

ASSEMBLY COMMITTEE ON EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

Freddie Rodriguez, Chair

ABPCA Bill Id:AB 277 (

Author:Rodriguez) – As Introduced Ver:January 23, 2023

SUBJECT: Extreme Weather Forecast and Threat Intelligence Integration Center

SUMMARY: This bill would require the California Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES) and the Department of Water Resources (DWR) to establish and lead the Extreme Weather Forecast and Threat Intelligence Integration Center for the purpose of collecting, assessing, and analyzing extreme weather data and atmospheric conditions, as specified. Specifically, this bill:

1. Requires the California Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES) and the Department of Water Resources (DWR) to establish and lead the Extreme Weather Forecast and Threat Intelligence Integration Center for the purpose of collecting, assessing, and analyzing extreme weather data and atmospheric conditions.
2. Requires the center be composed of representatives from Cal OES, DWR, the Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), the Military Department, the California State University, the California Utilities Emergency Association, at least one representative of investor-owned utility companies, appointed by the President of the CPUC, and at least one representative of publicly owned utilities, appointed jointly by the Director of Cal OES and DWR.
3. Provides the Director of Cal OES and the Director of DWR to add additional members and may invite the National Weather Service, United States Army Corps of Engineers, and University of California to designate representatives to the center.
4. Requires the center to share intelligence and data relevant to weather threat, forecasting, detection, and prevention activities received from utility weather and emergency operations centers, partner academic institutions, private companies, and other sources in coordination with certain organizations, as specified.
5. Requires the center to develop and disseminate timely and actionable intelligence products and would permit use of those products by emergency managers, public safety officials, and local public and private sector entities engaged in emergency preparedness efforts.
6. Requires the center to develop a statewide extreme weather forecast and threat intelligence strategy and would authorize use of that strategy by agencies to improve how extreme weather threats are identified, understood, and shared for the purpose of reducing threats to California government, businesses, and consumers.

7. Prescribes the manner in which the center would conduct information sharing, including the protection and safeguarding of sensitive information.

EXISTING LAW:

1. Under the California Emergency Services Act, establishes the California Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES) within the office of the Governor for the purpose of mitigating the effects of natural, manmade, or war-caused emergencies. (Government Code 8550)
2. Establishes the Department of Water Resources (DWR) within the Natural Resources Agency and sets forth its powers and duties relating to water resources. (Water Code 120)
3. Establishes the Atmospheric Rivers: Research, Mitigation, and Climate Forecasting Program in the DWR. (Water Code 347)
4. Requires the DWR, upon an appropriation for purposes of the program, to research climate forecasting and the causes and impacts that climate change has on atmospheric rivers, to operate reservoirs in a manner that improves flood protection, and to reoperate flood control and water storage facilities to capture water generated by atmospheric rivers. (Water Code 347)
5. Establishes the Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (Cal FIRE) and establishes various programs for the prevention and reduction of wildfires. (Public Resources Code 701)
6. Requires Cal OES and Cal FIRE to jointly establish and lead the Wildfire Forecast and Threat Intelligence Integration Center, and sets forth the functions and duties of the center, including serving as the state’s integrated central organizing hub for wildfire forecasting. (Government Code 8586.7)

FISCAL EFFECT: Unknown.

COMMENTS:

Purpose of the bill: According to the author, “The recent series of atmospheric rivers brought unanticipated devastation across California and has led to multiple fatalities. In response to the storms, over 40 counties proclaimed a local emergency. Subsequently, the Governor declared a state of emergency and ultimately requested a major disaster declaration from the President to provide federal assistance to communities and individuals who suffered damages. Clearly, California would benefit from more accurate forecasts to determine the extent to which extreme weather events, such as atmospheric rivers and extended periods of extreme heat would result in significant damages or disruptions to lifeline infrastructure systems.”

The author continues, “Earlier this year, the Committee on Emergency Management, the Committee on Water, Parks and Wildlife, and the Committee on Utilities and Energy Committee, convened a joint oversight hearing to evaluate California’s preparedness for extreme atmospheric river incidents. The hearing was an opportunity to hear from the leading climate scientists and researchers on what type of incidents our emergency managers should be prepared for and how the State could improve local forecast models to more accurately predict local impacts and the need to quickly warn residents of any danger from flooding or extended power outages. This bill will improve California’s forecasting capabilities and provide state and local emergency management with the information they need to prepare for these extreme atmospheric river incidents.”

Equity Impact: According to the author’s staff, “since disasters have a disproportionate impact on vulnerable individuals and communities, this bill seeks to mitigate risks posed by extreme atmospheric river incidents and make communities more resilient.

Background: California began 2023 with as many as nine major storm events in around three weeks. These storms brought 8–⁠15 inches of rain in the valleys, 20–⁠30 inches of rain in the foothills, and 10–⁠15 feet of snow in the Sierra. While this precipitation did provide much-needed drought relief, it was accompanied by intense floods and winds reaching up to 90 mph that caused over $1 billion in damage and the tragic loss of at least 22 lives. The phenomenon responsible for exacerbating the impact of these storms: atmospheric rivers. Atmospheric rivers are long corridors that transport concentrated water vapor through the air from the tropics to California; these events can be either hazardous or beneficial depending on their intensity. When atmospheric river-fed storms approach land and encounter high elevation mountain ranges, such as the Sierra Nevada, moist air rises and cools producing copious amounts of precipitation. Some of these atmospheric rivers can carry 25 times the average flow out of the Mississippi River.

Based on forecasts of the high winds, excessive rainfall, and the potential for flooding, local operational areas (counties) began proclaiming local emergencies prior to the damaging New Year’s Eve storm. On January 4, 2023 the Governor requested and secured an Emergency Declaration for direct Federal Assistance from the Federal Emergency Management Association. As the series of atmospheric rivers continued to cause floods, extended power outages, and displace thousands of residents, a majority of California’s counties proclaimed local emergencies and ultimately the Governor requested an Expedited Major Disaster Declaration on January 12, 2023. President Biden approved the Major Disaster Declaration on January 14, 2023.

History of Floods in California: California has experienced destructive flood events throughout its history. Before January 2023, the last major, widespread flooding event was 1997 (the New Year’s Day floods, when 120,000 people were evacuated and 23,000 homes and businesses flooded). More recently, more local flood disasters include the Oroville Spillway in 2017 and the Russian River floods in 2019. Even before this year’s floods, every county in California has been declared a federal disaster area at least once for a flooding event over the last 30 years.

Estimates suggest more than 7.3 million people and structures valued at nearly $600 billion statewide are located in areas that have at least a 1-in-500 probability of flooding in any given year. In the Central Valley, 1.3 million people, $17 billion in agriculture economic activity, and $223 billion in homes, businesses, and structures are in flood risk areas. Factoring in future development, climate change, and potential losses to key infrastructure, those figures could climb much higher. Current projections indicate that peak flood flows will increase up to five times by 2072 in the Central Valley compared to past records. Despite their damaging potential, in some cases floods can have positive effects including replenishing groundwater basins, creating habitat for fish and wildlife, and improving water quality by flushing out contaminants

ARkStorm Scenario: In 2010, the United State Geological Survey (USGS) led a multidisciplinary team of leading earth scientists, engineers, and social scientists to create the ARKStorm Scenario: a detailed and realistic depiction of how a severe winter storm could affect the state. The ARkStorm Scenario shows that atmospheric rivers represent a nearly existential threat to California's people, economy, and culture. It is well established that climate change is raising the ocean temperatures that power atmospheric rivers, making an event like the ARkStorm more realistic, the threat more grave, and the likely losses greater.

The 2010 ARkStorm is patterned after the 1861–⁠62 historical events but uses modern modeling methods and data from large storms in 1969 and 1986. The ARkStorm draws heat and moisture from the tropical Pacific, forming a series of atmospheric rivers that approach the ferocity of hurricanes and then slam into the U.S. West Coast over several weeks.

In contrast to U.S. East and Gulf Coast hurricanes, only recently have scientific and technological advances documented the ferocity and strength of possible future West Coast storms. ARkStorm is intended to elevate the visibility of the very real threats to human life, property, and ecosystems posed by extreme storms on the U.S. West Coast. This enhanced visibility will help increase the preparedness of the emergency management community and the public to such storms. The ARkStorm analysis suggested that such an event would likely produce widespread, catastrophic flooding and subsequently lead to the displacement of millions of people, the long-term closure of critical transportation corridors, and ultimately up to nearly $1 trillion in overall economic losses (2022 dollars).

A new ARkStorm scenario (ARkStorm 2.0) has recently been analyzed to reflect climate change data and advances in modeling to investigate the impact of a 30-day storm in a future climate (2071–2080), called ARkFuture. This new modeling shows that climate change will increase the severity of storms bringing more intense moisture transport and more overall precipitation, along with higher elevation freezing levels and decreased snow-to-rain ratios that together yield runoff that is much higher than that during historical events. Additionally, projected increases in hourly rainfall rates during individual storm events have high potential to increase the severity of geophysical hazards such as flash flooding and debris flows. This is especially true in the vicinity of large or high-intensity wildfire burn areas, which are themselves increasing due to climate change and yielding large increases in associated compound hazards.

The plausibility of the ARkStorm scenarios has been demonstrated over the last several years, including during winter-spring 2017, when a drought-busting and record-breaking series of 68 atmospheric-river storms reached the West Coast.10 Neither the 2017 and 2023 storms approached the severity of the megaflood modeled by ARkStorm: a flood 200 miles long and 12 to 20 miles wide that would effectively be an inland sea in the Central Valley. However, the cascading consequences associated with the atmospheric rivers, floods, wildfire fuel production, and fire and debris-flows, aligned closely with the ARkStorm scenario.

In an August 12, 2022, ScienceAdvances Research Article entitled “Climate change is increasing the risk of a California megaflood,” Dr. Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California Los Angeles, and researcher Xingying Huang of the National Center for Atmospheric Rivers, develop two additional ARkStorm scenarios: ArkHist and ARkFuture. Both scenarios are capable of causing a megaflood in California based on recent historical climate data (ARkHist) and from a hypothetical warmer future climate (ARkFuture). Each of these scenario are based on a 3-4 week long sequence of atmospheric river storms affecting California. Under these scenarios, atmospheric rivers, over a 3-4 week period, would deliver 80-100 plus inches of water in the mountains.

At the February 1, Joint Oversight hearing, Dr. Swain testified, “In warming climate, there will be more rain than snow and the dramatic shift toward rain in CA’s mountains, except at highest elevations will have major implications for immediate surface runoff. A modern megaflood would be an unprecedented California disaster. A megaflood would be California’s “Other Big One” and there is no modern precedent for an 1862-like great flood.” In offering his recommendations to mitigate flood and drought risk simultaneously, Dr. Swain suggested, among other things, “improved public and agency awareness of risks, tabletop disaster response exercises, and improved data visualization and dissemination.”

At the same oversight hearing, Dr. Marty Ralph, Director and founder of the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (cw3e.ucsd.edu) at UC San Diego/Scripps Institution of Oceanography, testified on experiences over nearly 20 years in exploring the science of atmospheric rivers, and improving predictions of ARs to provide solutions to managing water supply and flood in California and across the west. He described the key traits of ARs that determine whether they are likely to be mostly beneficial versus hazardous, how to improve predictions of them from hours to days, and weeks, and how such information can be used to benefit decision makers. (For example, the ranking of incoming storms on the AR Scale is predicted by CW3E and is available online - http://cw3e.ucsd.edu/arscale_forecasts/.

He introduced to the committee key new programs he has developed to observe ARs by flying weather reconnaissance aircraft into the storms (AR Recon; https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/arrecon_overview/; 36 missions flown this winter), by creating a specialized regional weather forecast model tailored to AR forecasting and a range of AR forecasting decision support tools (West-WRF; https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/iwv-and-ivt-forecasts/) and by working with CA DWR, USACE and local water agencies to integrate these data into reservoir operations to increase flexibility in reservoir operations that can increase water supply reliability and flood risk management capacity through use of AR forecasts.

According Mary Jo Flynn, the Director of the Sacramento County Office of Emergency Services, “improved flood forecasting from a weather science perspective is great and a valuable path for local emergency managers. However, that information without an impact analysis and decision support tools may still be a gap.” Director Flynn continued, “using state DWR funds, Sacramento County has been working with DWR and Delta County partners on the development of the Flood Operation Decision Support System Tool could be hosted by the state, accessible by local agencies, and fully supported with continued investments.

Director Flynn added, “I would like to see more education and sharing of the probabilistic and deterministic data and decision making in some of those river level forecasts. I’d also like to see funding that supports local level flood planning that takes into consideration the probabilistic and deterministic data sets along with gauge readings to improve action triggers for alert and warning with evacuation warnings, orders, and shelter-in-place.”

Kelly Hubbard, the Santa Barbara County Director of Emergency Management, told the Committee, “Identifying burn scar debris flow risk thresholds past 2 years. Currently there are only 2 years of identified and agreed upon risk for post fire burn scars, but we know that historically within our county we have had debris flows up to 5 years post fire. Having a matrix or guidance on risk based on rain rates for years 3 -5 would be extremely helpful.” Director Hubbard also suggested, “Supporting the ArkStorm re-evaluation based on climate change, but also funding localized analysis for specific watersheds based on ArkStorm would be extremely helpful for planning, mitigation, exercises and even response.”

According to the author’s staff, in addition to meeting these emergency management needs, the extreme weather center could build on CW3E’s well established capabilities in AR science, prediction and decision support and further develop tools/methods that provide OES-needs-specialized hi-space-and-time resolution atmospheric rivers and precipitation modeling for floods, post-wildfire debris flow weather radars, scientific research work longer range (2 to 3 weeks) forecasts of atmospheric rivers and related triggers of natural hazards with a focus on meeting local emergency management needs, climate change impacts on cool-season hazards, and identifying and sharing emerging technologies and opportunities.

Cal OES’s Wildfire Forecast and Threat Intelligence Integration Center: In 2019, the Governor signed into law SB 209 (Dodd), which established Cal OES’s Wildfire Forecast and Threat Intelligence Integration Center: SB 209 requires the deployment of a state-wide network of automated weather and environmental monitoring stations designed to observe mesoscale meteorological phenomena, specifically conditions that increase the threat of wildfires. Additionally, SB 209 requires the development of a statewide fire weather forecasting, monitoring and threat assessment capability and the establishment of the California Wildfire Warning Center (CWWC) to be responsible for ongoing monitoring of fire weather and threat conditions.

Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography: Among other initiatives, the Center for Western Weather Extremes coordinates an Atmospheric River Reconnaissance program with US Army Corps of Engineers, DWR, US Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, and NOAA. The goal of this program is to support water management decisions and flood forecasting by developing and testing the potential of targeted airborne and buoy observations over the Northeast Pacific to improve forecasts of the landfall and impacts of atmospheric rivers on the U.S. West Coast at lead times of 1-5 days. Innovations in targeting methods, data assimilation and regional forecast skill requirements are pursued through collaborative, cross-disciplinary, science-based strategies.

Double referral: This bill is set to be heard by the Committee on Emergency Management on March 13, 2023. Should the bill be approved by this committee, it will be referred to the Assembly Committee on Water, Parks and Wildlife.

Related legislation: AB 30 (Ward) of this Session. Would require DWR to take all actions within its existing authority to operate reservoirs in a manner that improves flood protection in the state and to reoperate flood control and water storage facilities to capture water generated by atmospheric rivers and would make other changes to DWR’s work related to atmospheric rivers, as specified. (Referred to the Committee on Water, Parks and Wildlife)

SB 231 (Hurtado) of this Session. Would state the intent of the Legislature to enact subsequent legislation to require the Department of Water Resources to modify its predictive models as necessary to account for California’s persistent drought. (Pending referral in the Senate.)

SB 262 (Hurtado) of this Session. Would, subject to an appropriation by the Legislature, require DWR to administer the California Farmworkers Drought Resilience Pilot, as specified. (Referred to Committees on Human Services and Government and Finance. Set to be heard by the Senate Human Services Committee on March 20, 2023.)

Prior legislation: SB 209 (Dodd) of the 2019-2020 Session. Established a multi-agency California Wildfire Warning Center (CWWC) to monitor fire-weather and threat condition and to enhance fire-weather forecasting models. (Chapter 405, Statutes of 2019.)

REGISTERED SUPPORT / OPPOSITION:

Support

None on file.

Opposition

None on file.

Analysis Prepared by: Mike Dayton / E.M. / (916) 319-3802